And here we are. Cautious mainstream editorial boards are now openly discussing the alternatives: A transition to “elected” authoritarianism a la Viktor Orban’s Hungary, or a breakdown of civil society. I don’t see those two things as mutually exclusive.
I’ll write of factions in the plural, but only one of America’s two political parties wants this to happen. The only reason we aren’t discussing a Second Civil War is that the factions are not sufficiently geographically discrete to draw battle lines. Even the bluest states have swaths of red rural counties, and the reddest states have blue-island metropolitan areas and college towns.
Instead, I foresee a coming American Uncivil War. In a couple of years, the aptly named but criminally negligent Democratic Party will have lost its grip on power at the federal level. It won’t regain it in my lifetime. With the federal government and courts under authoritarian control, there will be no check on the excesses of the (majority of U.S.) states that are also under Republican control.
One consequence of shameless gerrymandering is that primaries become the only elections that matter, so gerrymandering doesn’t just guarantee legislative control, it pushes both parties towards their poles. Very soon, Republican-controlled states will be falling over themselves to introduce laws that make Texas’ abortion ban seem moderate. Any citizen will be able to sue anyone who doesn’t stand for the national anthem. Oklahoma will impose a special road tax on EVs, if not ban them outright.
Owning the libs will become an organized sport, but it won’t end there. Along with a supercharged return of racist and homophobic lynching, we’ll see paramilitary vigilantism directed against all liberals. The first flash points will be in, ahem, battleground states—like Wisconsin, where I live.
States along the west coast and in New England will erect d/Democratic bulwarks that will last for a while, but the Democratic counties in Washington, Oregon, and California could not even feed themselves without food grown in Trump counties.
In the coming months, I’ll flesh out this bleak forecast. Partly, I’m motivated by the grim satisfaction I’ll get from saying, “I told you so.” But there’s also a part of me that feels that by writing it down, I’ll challenge fate to prove me wrong. So if I’m right I was right, but if I’m wrong I’ll be happy.